Focus on weather: The forecast calls for rain

There’s more than a silver lining in the clouds drifting towards southern Africa right now. If weather forecasters at the South Africa Weather Bureau are accurate, drought stricken regions of southern Africa will receive normal rains from the start of the rainy season in October until at least December. The caveat from meteorologists is for the latter half of the summer season, January to March, which may see the rains dry up prematurely. El Nino will have the final say, but as this point, hasn’t revealed the conclusion of this weather story.

Meteorologist Melton Mugeri, South Africa’s chief long-term orecaster, says, “The first half of summer should see normal rain patterns, but from January to March, we expect drier than normal conditions.” The big unknown is the very-hard-to-predict El Nino that started to grow over the Pacific Ocean earlier this year. Mugeri says El Nino was born earlier than usual this year, but hasn’t been growing, or heating up, very quickly. “If El Nino grows, rainfall will most likely be reduced.” With that prediction, he suggests that farmers, ravaged by drought all over southern Africa in the past

year, plant short variety crops – that is crops that can be harvested quickly.”

The staple diet in this part of the world is maize, and the drought has created continental hunger that may be hard to satisfy. According to the latest WFP (World Food Program) stats, just under 15-million are suffering through severe food shortages in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Lesotho. In fact, 300,000 of them are at risk of dying of starvation. And it isn’t just the drought and ensuing food shortages.
World Vision’s SAFER (Southern Africa Food Emergency Response) Regional Program Officer Margaret Chilcott says, “People are already weak from lack of food and then there’s the HIV/AIDS factor that has deeply affected young adults who should be working in the fields and caring for the families, but many of them are sick, dying, or dead already.” Across the countries of sub-Saharan Africa a total of 28.5 million adults and children are estimated to be living with HIV or AIDS. This infection rate among adults is 9 percent of the total population. Approximately 3.5 million new infections occurred in 2001.
The current drought in southern Africa is the worst in this region in twenty years. Earlier this month, meteorologists and scientists from the affected countries met in Harare, Zimbabwe to compare notes and make predictions. They predicted that the coming rainy season will be normal to above normal from October to December, normal to below normal from January to March in the new year.

There is another mixed message for the farmers who are so desperately waiting for a good season. Some have seeds to plant; many others do not. “Seeds are there, but not to the extent needed,” says Paul Sitnam, World Vision’s Senior Relief Coordinator for SAFER. “The crisis hasn’t yet peaked. We hope the world starts to pay attention. We don’t want to have to say, ‘I told you so’, when it’s too late for some. The next six months are crucial. Rains must come. Crops must grow. People must harvest. If not, there will be an extended period of need. Already, there isn’t enough food in the pipeline for the current crisis. The people still have hope, but that too may be in short supply very soon.